Khatarta Ka Dhallan Karta Saladhigga Ciidan Ee Imaaraatku Ka Dhisayo Berbera! …W/Q:- Nasir Hassan Timo-Weyne

Nasir Hassan Timo-weyne

Nation003@gmail.com

Sida ay sheegayso warbaahintu, Somaliland waxay hakisay saldhigga ciidan ee Imaaraatka ee Berbera, arintaas oo uu xaqiijiyey W.W.Arrimaha Dibedda, Dr. Sacad Ali Shire, waa sida ay qortay saxaafaddu ye (Garoow online: https://www.garoweonline.com/so/news/somalia/somaliland-oo-hakisay-saldhigga-militariga-ima ar aatka-ee-berbera). Arrintaas waxa la iska waydiin karaa su’aalo dhawr ah oo kala duwan. Dadka qaar waxay is weydiinayaan: waa maxay sababta loo hakiyey? Halka qaar kalena is waydiinayaan: horta muxuu faa’iido u leeyahay Somaliland? Qofba waxbaa maskaxdiisa ku soo dhacaya marka uu maqlo arrintaas. Dadka qaar oo aan anigu ka mid ahay waxay is weydiinayaan: waa

maxay danta ugu jirta Imaaraatka Saldhiggaas iyo saamaynta uu ku yeelan karo Somaliland?
Inta la ogyahay taariikhda casriga maadaama Berbera ay dhacdo meel muhiim ah, waxa dhigyo ciidan ka sameysta awood kasta oo halgan dagaal ku jirta sida tusaale ahaan labadii quwadood ee waaweynaa ee USA iyo Midawgii Soviet ee Ruushka xiligii dagaalkii qaboobaa. Ahmiyada ay leedahay waxa ka mid ah, Baddaa Cas ee ay kulaasho Beberi waa jid muhiim u ah isku socodka xidhiidhka ganacsi ee ka dhexeeya gobolka Bari ee Asiya, Gacanka Pershiya iyo Yurub (Yacquul,Is the military base in Berbera important for Somaliland, 2017). Hada se, sida ay qortay jariidadda Sputnik International, waa ujeedo dhinaca ‘geopolitics’ (https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201701131049542386-uae-wants-military-base-somaliland/). Taas oo macnaheedu yahay in ay Imaratku ugu tala galeen saldhiggaas inuu ka ilaashadaan maraakiibtooda badaas maraysa iyo ta ugu wayn oo ah inuu yahay goob ay ka ilaashanayaan danaha ay ka leeyihiin waddan ka Yemen si ay u qabsadaan waddan (Yacquul,Is the military base in Berbera important for Somaliland, 2017).

Sida dad badanni aaminsan yihiin Saldhiggan ciidan waa mid khatar ku ah J. Somaliland (Guleid Ahmed: http:// www . somaliland press. Com /giving -military-base-uae-somaliland-putting-nose-not-belong/). Baahida saldhigga ciidan ee Berbera ee Imaaraatka waxay timid ka dib markii qaska siyaasadeed ee Yemen uu isku rogay mid madhab diimeed ah ee Xuutiyiinta saamayntoodu xoogeysatay, markaas oo aragtida siyaasadeed ee Somaliland ee Bariga dhexe oo mudada ay jirtayba dhex-dhexaad ahayd ay isku badashay inay muujiso taageerada ay u hayso dhinac ka mid ah dhinacyada isku hayey Yemen kaasi oo ah dawladii Yemenneed iyo xulifadii taageeraysay(Yacquul,Is the military base in Berbera important for Somaliland, 2017). Taasi waxay kuu cadaynaysaa in go’aankii ay xukumaddii M.weyne A.M.M. Silaanyo ugu ogolaatay Imaaraatka saldhigaas uu noqon karo mid caadifadaysan oo ku salaysan inta badan madhab diimeed (Shiico iyo Suni). Si kastaba ha ahaatee, wixii la doonaba ha loogu balan qaado e, Somaliland sandhigaasi waxuu ka dhigayaa aag dagaal, kaasoo khatar ku ah amniga waddanka. Amniguna waa tiirka 1aad ee wadan ku dhisan yahay.

Fikir aqooneedka afka qalaad lagu yidhaahdo REALISM/STRUCTURAL REALISM, qodobkiisa
4aad (4th assumption) waxa uu sheegayaa in waddan walba goolkiisa ugu weyn (major goal) uu yahay ‘sidii uu u jiri lahaa (survival)’, si uu uga badbaado inay wadamada ka waawayni liqin, sidaa darteedna ay tahay inuu kor u qaado cududiisa ciidan si uu ilaashado amnigiisa si uu u waaro waddankaasi(Dr. John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of the Power Politics, 2001). Sidey kuula muuqata, laba kooxood (Xuutiyiinta+Iran vs Imaaraat) oo dagaalamaya oo mid ka mid ahi guirgaaga ka dhex sameystay meel uu kaga duulo kooxda kale?

Dhinaca gobolka (Horm of Africa) marka aad u soo noqoto, marka la is barbar-dhigo waddanka Itoobiya oo ay Somaliland jaar la tahay iyo Imaaraatka oo ah laba dal oo xurguf siyaasadeed oo ku qotonta khilaafka biyaha Niilka ee u dhexeeya Itoobiya iyo Masar, Somaliland waxay dan wayn oo muhiim ah oo khuseysa jiritaankeeda ku qabtaa waddanka Itoobiya. Hadana Saldhigga ciidan ee Somaliland ay siisay Imaaraatku waxa uu cabsi galinayaa Itoobiya oo ah saaxiibka koowaad ee Somaliland oo lagu xasuusto inuu yahay waddankii ugu horeeyey ee safaarad ka sameystay Somaliland jecelna inay ka go’do Somaliya inteeda kale, halka Imaaraatku uu yahay waddan ay ku wayn tahay qadiyada midawga Somaliya iyo Somaliland walibana gacan muhiim ah aan ku lahayn horumarka siyaasadeed dalka.

Guntii iyo gabagabadii, waxaan ku talin lahaa, in hakinta ay xukumadda M.weyne M. Biixi ku samaysay saldhiga ciidan ee Imaaraatku ka wado Berbera ay u badasho joojin iyo inay heshiiskaa ka baxdo, waayo waxa uu khatar ku yahay amniga jiritaanka J. Somaliland dhawr sababoodba: 1) Imaaraatku maaha waddan sidaa u wayn oo lagu tiirsan karo dhinaca difaaca,2) Imaaraatku maaha waddan aaminsan qadiyada gooni-isku-taaga J. Somaliland, 3) Imaaraatka, u jeedadiisu waxa weeyi inuu waddanka Somaliland ka dhigto dhufays iyo meel uu ka duulo, taasi waxay ka dhigaysaa waddanka goob dagaal, 4) waxa uu gobolka ka abuuri karaa dareen xasilooni daro, taaso ah in u xumaado xidhiidhka Itoobiya iyo Somaliland, islamarkaana rajada aqoonsiga hoos u dhigaysa. Taa macnaheedu maaha in aan leehay xidhiidhka ha loo gooyo laakiin waxaan leehay lababa meel bay u joogtaa. Somaliland uma baahna inay noqoto meel dagaal iyo inay xaalad ka abuurto gobolka G.Afrika. Fadalan mudane Madax-weyne Saldhigaas naga xidh.

W/Q:-Nasir Hassan Timo-weyne

Nation003@gmail.com